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CEBR forecast house rise over next 5 years

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That headlines says it all really – the CEBR are the Centre for Economics and Business Research which  provides independent economic forecasts and analysis to private, public and third sector organisations.

“We do not expect a house price boom’ says Douglas McWilliams, Cebr Chief Executive. ‘But the housing shortage is likely to push prices gently upwards. Because we have revised down our forecast for economic growth from 2012 to 2015, we have also cut our forecast growth in house prices to 2015 from 15.8% to 14.0%.”

Looking beyond the headline – they have actually revised their growth forecast down slightly (from 16% growth to 14% growth) – but it’s still growth. I’m really glad they aren’t forecasting a boom – aside from that being unlikely, a boom does no-one any favours. A nice steady property market with transactions gradually getting back to normal levels would be best for everyone, helping to grow the economy again. However you shouldn’t underestimate the suppressed demand that is out there – the number of people moving house over the last 3 years has been 40-60% lower than the average for the previous 40 years. When those buyers do return to the market the result may be a boom in transactions because the existing housing supply problems will be exacerbated. That in turn could lead to a boom in prices as well. Fingers crossed for nice steady growth…..

The original report is here:- CEBR forecast house rise over next 5 years

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